New Study Finds LA Times polls bogus
We received this analysis last night and thought you should see it too. This is an all new low in voter suppression. Our brothers and sisters of color and in labor should read this carefully.
Recently, the LA Times released an article about the unlikelihood of non-white voters going to the polls giving all kinds of fancy numbers and leaving us with no information other than “white folks vote more?” “Isn’t it a shame that more people don’t turn out”. “It all the fault of the unexciting electeds and candidates for low turnout” Blah blah blah. We would think this would be a wonderful opportunity for the LA Times to encourage voter turnout, rather than the Debbie Downer this article gives, but what do we know? We’re just grassroots organizers who vote and whose membership votes. Truthfully we didn’t want to vote after reading it either!
Pretty disgusting, a week before an election and not what most of us experienced on the Obama Campaign.
Even more reprehensible is that the LA Times has released several polls over the course of the primary and general that have been contrary to just about every poll done on this race. We checked the Times in our last correspondence to you, but they have continued to step up their game acting as the mouth piece for the Garcetti Campaign.
To us this constitutes a severe dereliction of duty by the Times, but then this behavior was witnessed before on other campaigns, just not to this degree. By constantly putting out that a candidate is running severely behind their opponent the message to the constituency is, why bother, my candidate couldn’t possibly make up the lost ground.
The firm Lake Research Partners did a comprehensive analysis of the newly released Los Angeles Times poll and also analyzed previous polls conducted. Their findings:
The LA Times continues the pattern of the Times’ polls standing as outliers among all polls—both public and private-- by understating the Greuel vote, and overestimating Garcetti’s. There are numerous other public and private polls showing the race is tied.
*In the past three weeks, there have been three public polls, including a live telephone survey from the well-respected Pat Brown Institute, that showed Wendy Greuel either tied or with a slight lead, in addition to a publicly released private poll showing the candidates one point apart. Only the LA Times poll, conducted on behalf of the newspaper which has endorsed Garcetti, shows widely differing results that simply do not match up with other polling, and should be interpreted accordingly. Virtually all pollsters know that any analysis where a race “stands” should be based on a conglomeration and averaging of all scientifically conducted polls. Using that standard and all available polls, the race is a dead heat going into the closing days. The fact that Garcetti’s Campaign is now exclusively focused on negative attacks on Greuel, suggests strongly that the Garcetti Campaign’s internal polls show Garcetti trailing or that the race is tight. Moreso, if it were just the Mayor’s race that represented a dramatic change from public polls, it would be more plausible to believe that a shift truly was occurring, but the numbers for the City Attorney and City Controller races are also far different from any other public poll.
*A detailed look into the crosstabs reveals several demographics whose support for the mayoral candidates not only is different from every other poll released, but goes against conventional wisdom. Garcetti’s leads among women, especially older women, as well as his 17 point lead among all voters over 65, are radically different from any other poll. Furthermore, he has a higher lead among union members than non-union members, which is highly unlikely given his constant attacks on unions, and Greuel’s support by the organizations representing working families.
*The turnout model is flawed, as it says that 10% of general election voters who voted in the primary voted for Kevin James, while only 6%, voted for Perry. Given that the two candidates were virtually tied at 16% in the primary, this would suggest, without any logical explanation, that James voters are nearly twice as likely as Perry voters to turnout in the general election. As James voters tend to support Garcetti and Perry voters tend to support Greuel, the race is likely closer than projected by the Times if the primary vote is adjusted to reflect an accurate turnout.
*Most importantly, despite the Garcetti Campaign’s attempts to spin these results otherwise, this race is far from over. A significant percentage of voters remain undecided, and both candidates remain short of the critical 50% + 1 mark. Furthermore, a higher number of Garcetti voters indicate they are likely to change their mind between now and Election Day. But the biggest indicator that Greuel remains well-positioned for Tuesday is that the demographics of the remaining undecided voters would indicate that they are more likely to vote for her:
African Americans comprise just 12% of the electorate in this poll, yet over one-fourth (28%) of undecided voters. Every poll, including this one) has shown African Americans are one of Wendy Greuel’s strongest bases of support.
37% of the electorate is over 60, yet 44% of undecided voters are over 60. Despite what this poll says, every other poll has shown this is also a strong group for Greuel.
A plurality of undecided voters (39% to 25%) believe that Eric Garcetti is a “typical politician who says things just to get elected”, rather than “is genuine and says what he really believes in”;
Undecided voters just like Greuel better. Undecided voters view her favorably by nearly a 3 to 1 margin (49% to 18%), whereas Garcetti’s favorability is only 2 to 1.
*Finally, even the best of polls can give only a snapshot of the race at a given time, and fail to account for the dynamic changes that can occur in the final days of the race among those who are undecided or who could change their minds—voters who constitute over one-third of the vote in the mayoral campaign. With a stronger volunteer and field campaign including phone banks and door-to-door operations, ongoing television advertising and voter communication, and campaign events highlighting the breadth of support Greuel enjoys among respected leaders including President Clinton, former Mayor Richard Riordan, Magic Johnson, Senator Barbara Boxer. Congresswoman Judy Chu, Supervisor Gloria Molina and Speaker John Perez, as well as the Chamber of Commerce and numerous organizations representing working families, the Greuel Campaign is poised for victory.
With just three days until voters decide the next Mayor of LA, it is disappointing that an otherwise well-respected publication like the LA Times would put out a flawed poll in favor of their endorsed candidate, despite no other polls reporting anything remotely similar. As the recent Pat Brown Institute poll showed (continuing the previous trend), this race is neck-and-neck, but Greuel has the momentum heading into Tuesday.
This is pretty alarming given just a couple of days left.
To add to the insanity, we have watched Mary Jane Stevenson, former State Director for OFA and Rick Jacobs of Courage campaign launch a “grassroots” PAC attack with bizarre claims that somehow Wendy Greuel was responsible for advising Pete Wilson on how to accomplish his evil deeds against immigration reform back in the early 90’s. Bizarre, weird, embarrassing and LAME are words that come to mind.
As a final disgusting slam in this twilight zone mayor’s race, insiders reveal that Jan Perry who has found all this new sudden love for Eric Garcetti, apparently found all this love after being promised a GM job at the DWP!!! Nicely done Ms. Perry! Please do let us know how that works out for you.
So for those of you who are undecided and ponder which way to go, please factor that whether or not Garcetti had a specific hand in the false reporting, he rubber stamped the behavior of the LA Times by doing and saying nothing. He rubber stamped the Jacobs and Stevenson pac and he co-erced a FORMER elected official with a job to garner her support. The irony of it being the DWP is not lost on us.
The immaturity of the Garcetti campaign has been apparent throughout the campaign. And while there have been missteps for Wendy as well, she stepped up to rectified them; signs of true leadership.
This is anybody’s race and we really want it to be Wendy’s, so if you’re inclination is to wait it out and let others decide for you, remember what you did for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
Vote for Wendy Greuel,
Tuesday, May 21st.